Dlouhy/Paes v Kubot/Marach

I only got involved in this at 3-6** in the 2nd set Tie break. 1.04 with two chances to serve it out was fine for me. Every little help as they say at ASDA.

Yet another doubles match where the faves crash and burn.

Rafael Nadal v Robin Soderling

I couldn't make my mind up pre match so I stayed out the whole of the first set. Soderling taking it 6-4. Rafa just doesn't have the power he used too as is clearly shown in the size of his biceps. I wouldn't of course like to comment on any speculation as to the radical change in his physical stature over the last 18 months! However I think the picture here shows all the evidence you need! :-)

Soderling should probably be a lay at the start of the second but I think he may take this in two so will hang fire for now.

Soderling Wins 6-4 6-4 and I won nothing! But at least I lost nothing either! Onwards and upwards we go....

Roger Federer v Fernando Verdasco

Well I just wasn't sure on this one before the off and I'm still not. Federer was 1.21 at the start so would have been a great lay to trade with hindsight as Verdasco has taken the 1st set 6-4. I still don't feel confident enough to get involved in this so will watch and see how the second set develops. Trading the serve may be an option this set though.

Well I wish I'd listened to my own advice 8 service holds and we have 4-4. Had I traded that I would have had a nice green now! Oh well.....

Make that 9 holds! :-( ..... 10 ... 11 and Federer breaks for the set 7-5.
Deciding set it is then Federer to serve first will be an advantage if it's still on serve towards the end of the set.

Well that was a disappointing final set, Federer wins it 6-1 and I didn't manage to get on all match.

Andy Murray v Juan Martin Del Potro

Betfair has this market with Murray as clear favourite, trading at 1.35 at the moment. That is most likely due to the issues with Del Potro's wrist in recent weeks. But I think people are forgetting Murray's problems.

The head to head between the two shows Murray with a 4-1 lead. Del Potro's only win coming on clay earlier this year. Their last encounter was a TB a piece in the first two sets before Murray took the final set 6-1. That result kind of sums Murray up to me. He is perfectly capable of beating anyone 6-1 when he has his head switched on. Unfortunately he is also capable of losing 6-1 to pretty much anybody too! I don't know why he suffers from this so much as he is affected more than any other top player it would seem.

Because of this laying Murray at the 1.35/1.36 mark is very tempting, with a view to trade, especially as he has had his own injury problems of late. Obviously winning in Valencia was a good result, but again he looked injured fatigued in nearly every match bar the final. However the following week in Paris he only played one set in two games at his top level. He struggled through against Blake before a spectacular collapse versus Stepanek.

Overall I think that Murray will win I just have to decide whether to start off with a lay or wait. I think waiting is obviously the safer option though.

As for the picture of Andy Murray's girlfriend, Kim Sears!!! Well I'm not quite sure if Andy is that big, but that is usually enough of a motivation for most blokes to do what they're told! So keep an eye out for this signal to Murray as he will no doubt win if on a promise!

Finally I get on at 1.06 with the Murray leading 5-2* in the 3rd set. I hope he can break now for GSM rather than put me through the turmoil of having to serve it out!

0-15 Oi!... 15-15... 15-30 DF Oi! Oi! .... 15-40 Oi! Oi! Oi!  oooooofff 30-40 Take It!!!! .... 2nd Serve ...
GSM!!!!

Murray Wins 6-3 3-6 6-2

Profit: £8.64

Draw for London ATP World Tour Finals

The draw for the group stages has been done Click here for link

It was never going to be easy for anyone I guess but this is what it looks like:

Group A: Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Verdasco
Group B: Nadal, Djokovic, Davydenko, Soderling
Alternate Tsonga

I feel that Federer and Murray should go through from Group A. Del Potro struggling with injury and Verdasco not on form. I expect Tsonga to get at least one match from this group. In Group B, I'm going to go against the ranking here as I actually think Davydenko is favourite for this group. Many will note Djokovic's rich vein of form but I don't see it like that I see him playing OK with a very fortunate draw, or his opponents not taking their chances. So I'm going to plump for Davyenko and Soderling.

Saturday's Tennis

Well last night was most enjoyable. Copious amounts of alcohol twinned with exuberant dancing equals sore head this morning and a bad knee!! Still I obviously managed to persuade the Mrs to stop for a kebab on the way home as half of it seems to be down the front of my dinner jacket!

I can't believe I said I would play rugby today. I feel like crap have somehow hurt my knee and want to go back to bed please. It also means that I'm going to miss today's tennis.

It's a shame that we have Nadal v Djokovic in the semi final really, but it means it's a great opportunity for Monfils and Stepanek.

In the 1st Semi final I can't see past a Djokovic win. His game is superior to Nadal's on this surface and seems to be in fine form despite his customary wobbles in matches. Nadal was great against Tsonga yesterday but has been very average apart from that. Probably not one to get on early though as the swing will be sudden for a break either way.

In the second Semi I favour Monfils. He can blow hot and cold I know but this close to a Masters Series final should be enough to focus him especially on home soil. Stepanek has had a great run but was completely blown off the court by Murray until he stopped playing. Even if I was around I wouldn't be confident enough to have a bet on this.

In summary then perhaps missing the tennis today is not such a bad thing with two potentially tight matches. I'll just go and run around a rugby field trying not to throw up! I'm getting too old for this nonsense ;-)

Friday's Tennis

We started off today with Djokovic v Soderling, which Djokovic has just won 6-4 1-6 6-3. It wasn't a game I had an opinion on so was not bothered that I had to miss it due to work commitments.

But now I am back home and looking at the remaining three matches makes me glad that I am attending a ball this evening. I have just under 4 hours with which to get ready or have a bet.

Next up is Tsonga v Nadal! Tsonga is the favourite @ 1.72 with Nadal @ 2.36. The odds are slightly out in my opinion but not by a lot. I would still have Tsonga shading it as favourite but more like in the high 1.80's. Tsonga needs to get to the final in order to reach London which will be his motivation here. However his performance against Simon troubled me somewhat. Simon was clearly injured from the start, and while some say that has an impact on Tsonga's play, he should have really dispatched him a lot quicker and easier than he did. Nadal may not be in great form at the moment and he does look thinner and wearier every day I see him, but he will put up a lot more resistance than Simon. He is also still in with a shout of year end Number 1.

I will plump for a Tsonga win here but I think it will be 2-1. Therefore if I do decide to get involved it will probably be to lay the first set winner and green up early. This may change in running of course depending on how things develop.

As for the last two matches of the day, I have to be honest and say I really don't have a clue on either. If pushed I would go for Monfils due to the partisan home support and the fact that Cilic hasn't impressed me. In the other match I would have to go for Del Potro. Yes he had the trainer on against Gonzalez, but one reason makes me fancy him.... The year end rankings. He has a really good chance of taking the number 4 spot from Murray, which may only be one place but has enormous repercussions when it comes to draws in tournaments. Number 4 year end will almost certainly mean seeded 4 for the Australian Open in January. What better way to spend your holiday sat on a beach knowing that you are almost guaranteed a semi final berth in the first Major of the new season.

Andy Murray v Radek Stepanek

Very interesting match up this one. The stats and the odds suggest a comfortable Murray victory as Stepanek has not managed to win a set in their last 3 meetings. However I just have my doubts about Murray at the moment. His body language doesn't look right and he struggled through against Blake last night. An on form Murray would have no problems and 1.27 would be a price to lump on. However, I fancy Stepanek to at least take a set this time and perhaps nick a victory. No bet from the off would be my strategy and see how the game is developing. If Murray goes very low early he has to be a lay and likewise if he gets broken early then he is probably a back. I hope Murray stops this "injury" grimacing he's been doing of late! It's very unsettling for us punters. Overall I think Murray 2-1 is the most likely outcome but we will see how it unfolds.

Good Luck and happy punting!

Right I'm matched with a lay at 1.07 now. Let's hope for Step to get back in this!
Score was 5-0* 1st set when I did that by the way. Murray taken the 1st set 6-1 odds still the same. Stepanek to serve first.
0*-1 Good hold by Stepanek now need 0-30 ish for a nice green book :)
There's the break!! Out at 1.2

£154. 59 on Both 

Correction £147.02 on Both (damn commission)


Stepanek takes the 2nd set 6-3


Stepanek Wins 1-6 6-3 6-4
Profit: £147.02


November is green again!

Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Gilles Simon

Simon somehow managed to win against Ljubicic the other day despite not being able to move. I will not speculate on whether I felt the result was pre-determined as many others have dicussed it at great length on the forums.

Had Simon not had a recurring knee injury then I would have given him a chance in this match. However he did have knee problems!

Tsonga is brainless at times but his coaching team will have told him what he needs to do to win this. Tsonga at 1.29 seems very generous all things considered but Simon may have the energy and strength in his knee to start strongly. Hopefully we can get to 4-4 in the 1st then may be the time to get on Tsonga at around 1.45.

Good Luck all and happy punting. :-)

Tsonga Wins 6-2 6-3

Arnaud Clement v Novak Djokovic

This is a match that I fully expect Djokovic to win and the odds reflect the surety of the eventual outcome. However the odds do not reflect the best value that is going to become available in play in my opinion. Djokovic regularly seems to give his opponent a sniff and as such I would recommend waiting till Djokovic's odds hit around 1.23/24 before getting on.

I would however not recommend a lay to start with a view to trade because this also has a good chance of being a 1.01 express if Nole is in the mood.

Looks like the 1.01 express today Djokovic break immediately for a 0-1* lead. And Clement breaks straight back. Had those two games been the other way round, I would have been in clover right now!

There's the 1st set - 6-2. I hope people took my advice not to lay for the trade. Djokovic did have his customary wobble. Unfortunately for me he did it when he was already ahead. We'll see what the second set brings but this should be straight forward from here. Although for a speculative punt backing Clement at 30's is a very cheap one!

Djokovic Wins 6-2 6-2
No profit as didn't get the opportunity to get involved.

Marin Cilic v Lukasz Kubot

The score is 5-4* in the first set with Kubot about to serve to stay in the set. I feel that's worth a punt at 1.25 so I've lumped on!

C'mon the break.

0-30 C'mon!! ... 15-30 ... 30-30 ...  40-30 ... 5*-5 :-(

Need the hold then Cilic then you've got a free game or a tiebreak!
Uh oh ... 15-30 Don't stuff up Marin!! ... 30-30 ... 40-30 ... 6-5* Now for the break please!

Hold to love! Tiebreak it is!!
0-1** Great start Marin!! :-(
0-2* C'mon get that MB back please!
0**-3 C'mon switch it on Cilic! Only 1 MB and evens :o
1*-3 That's better now another.
1-4** Pfft that the TB all but gone! Can you at least get one MB?
1-5* Ace :-(  Maybe the change of ends will bring about a change in fortunes?
1**-6 Woeful TB Rank 13 v Rank 111??? Well it's rank that's for sure!
2*-6 And another?
3-6** Too little too late?
Set Kubot. What an awful TB from Cilic!

Right what to do now? Back of the server through tis set may be the way forward....
0-0* Switched to Kubot backing the server: -43.61 MC 2.35 LK
0*-1 Switch to Cilic 21.12 MC -42.97 LK   

1-1* Switch to Kubot -43.60 MC 11.09 LK
0-30 Don't get broken now Lukasz!! 15-30 ... 15-40 .. FFS!! ... 30-40 ... Deuce ...

Well what a mess!! I've suffered from Firefox crashes before but at least I still have Fairbot when that happens. This time though I got a blue screen and a complete system crash!!It could have happened a game earlier couldn't it!! :-(

It's 4*-3 when I get back on! :( Kubot was obviously broken :(
30-30 c'mon 2 more points Lukasz!!! BP TAKE IT!!! ... Deuce :-( ... GP ... One of those matches I guess I see Kubot has had 5BP's now this set and converted none of them! :(

5-3* Need to hold now!
5*-4 Now or never Lukasz! Will Cilic choke? If his TB in the first set is anything to go by he might!
15-30 ... can he do it? ... 30-30 ... 40-30 :-( ... SET Cilic! Two sets and I've been on the wrong side of both!!

Still fancy Kubot to nick this so I guess my little green is on the right side! The problem is I don't like the liability so I'm going to have to look for opportunities to trade in this set!

From 40-0 to Deuce is not the start I was hoping for! BP!!! Double Fault! FFS Kubot what are you doing? AND BREAK :-( Bank is a goner it would seem!!
Or maybe not! 0-30 can he actually do it this time? 30-30 No he can't :-( GP ... And Holds!! How many opportunities does Kubot want? So frustrating this especially as Cilic was so bad in that 1st set TB!!
Here we go again 40-0 to 40-30 .... Hold this time though! Now get the break back Lukasz you deserve this match! (Not my pocket talking .... honest!)
3-1* Need to keep holding now!! Hmm 0-30 :-( ... 0-40 :-( ... 15-40 ... 30-40 ... Deuce! Now hold and lets see 1.02 smashed please!! GP ...  Lucky git Cilic Deuce#2 ... BP pffft ... Break!

4*-1 A hold here and it's over pretty much
5-1* There's the hold! Let's put me out of my misery now then!
5*-2 Oh sure now he holds to love!! Grrrrrr
15-30 But it'll end in a hold no doubt!! 30-30 ...  BP!!! But probably come to nothing! Hmmm 0/9 BP's taken! MP ... GSM

Cilic Wins 6(3)-7 6-4 6-2
Loss: £43.60

What a shocker from me! I know it's only £43 in real money but like I have explained many time I work in % of bank so it still feels the same as a £5,000 loss. Back in the red for November now

May have the rest of the night off too.

Nicolas Almagro v Rafael Nadal

Nomad said it was free money and he seem like a trustworthy sort of chap. It's 5-4* in the final set Nadal to serve but Almagro has bad cramp and can't move. All in at 1.27 it is then. Please be right Nomad!! :-)

5*-5 Now then can Nadal break now? I hope so!!

There's the break... Good call Nomad!!

5-6*

Hope Rafa Can serve this out now!!

0-15 I'm out!!!

Nadal Wins 3-6 7-6(2) 7-5
Profit: £7.91

Fernando Gonzalez v John Isner

Despite Isner winning this match up in Basel a week ago, I feel Gonzalez should win this time. He has the better all round game and still has a chance of reaching London. Gonzalez has a woeful record here mind you, having never won a match here! Getting in from the start as I feel 1.5 is fair value. Let's hope He can get his 1st ever victory here.

I have put up a pic of Gonzo's girlfriend to try and inspire him! :-)

Fianlly Gonzalez gets the breakthrough! Breaks to love to take a 6*-5 lead. Thank god we've been spared a tiebreak! As long as he holds that is!

That's enough for me though so I'm out!

£8.02 on Both

Gonzalez Wins 6-4 7-6(6)
Profit: £8.02

Finally in the Green for November!!!

Tommy Haas v Arnaud Clement

Not sure why I jumped in so rashly here but at first glance it looked like good value!!! Clement serving for the match in the final set with the score 4-5* 15-15. Clement manages to save 3 BP's in the game but haas still takes it for 5*-5. Back to evens.

Yep it was definitely a rash bet I was watching Marat's ceremony and just flicked over to this to nick a couple of quid. Always the way! Only rarely do you get an easy ride with these sorts of bets. Really need Clemnet to break right back.

Haas leads 6-5* now! Free game for him and Clement has gone from serving for the match to serving to stay in the match in a matter of minutes! Don't you just love tennis!!!

Hmmm 30-30 not exactly filling me with confidence here! 40-30 c'mon let's get to the Tie breaker first please. Then we can focus on winning that! There it is Tie Break!!

MB straight up please Arnaud. Do it for your Mrs!!!
1-0** OK two holds then please.
1-1* And another hold please
1**-2 Now for the MB or two?
1*-3 GET IN!! Another?
2-3** Two holds then please.
2-4* Has the lead at the turn around. Another hold please.
3**-4 Damn that point could have meant I could have got out! Two MB please.
4*-4 Get this one then or there's too much pressure on your serve!
4-5** YES Now serve it out please.
5-5* Double Fault. Haas rushed forward during his serve and put him off there. Very unsporting!
5**-6 C'mon Clement take this point then!! 2nd Serve!
6*-6 Don't let him get MP Arnaud!!
7-6** Oh dear! He's had the chances and fluffed them will they now come back to haunt him?
7-7* Phew what a time for that sort of shot? But gets away with it!
7**-8 An Ace!!! Oh get lost with your challenge Haas! Now break him Clement!
8*-8 C'mon Arnaud this one then?
8-9** TAKE IT!!!!!!!!!!
GSM!!!

Clement Wins
Profit: £3.85

Marat Safin v Juan Martin Del Potro

I have to lump on Del Potro from the start in this match. Safin struggled through against Ascione and I believe this is the end of the road for him toady. I would have preferred the 1.27 on offer last night but 1.24 seems fair enough. It really should be a straight sets victory for Del Potro as long as his wrist is OK. If not I may have to bail!

The photo to the right is in honour of the great man who has left us with so many memories, some good, some bad, but there was never a dull moment with Marat on the court. Enjoy you retirement and not a bad way to go losing to the reigning US Open Champion.

Safin had BP at  2*-3 but Del Potro held, and as so often happens missed break point means break in the next game and Del Potro duly obliges to take a 4*-3 lead.

Del Potro serves it out to take the 1st set 6-4.

It's 4-4 in the 2nd set and Marat has been competitive throughout. I just hope we get to see one last racquet smashing before the end! Maybe this service game! C'mon Marat do it it for your fans :-)

There it is the racquet is smashed at  5-5 Deuce! That will be worth a fortune on Ebay!!!

That racquet smashing must have done the job. Safin turn to go from saving a BP to breaking the next game. This time for the set 7-5. Del Potro needs to pull his finger out here or the crowd may whip Safin along!

The first break in the final set goes Del Potro's way to take a 1-2* lead. A long way to go in the set but you'd have to be pretty confident he will see this through now.

Marat saved a MP in the last game I just hope that doesn't mean a break here. Del Potro serving at 4-5*
0-15...15-15 ... 30-15 ... 40-15 ... GSM

Del Potro Wins 6-4 5-7 6-4
Profit: £4.43

Thanks for the memories Retire In Peace

Ivo Karlovic v Robin Soderling

I really fancied Soderling for this and liked the odds when I looked last night. Soderling still has an outside chance of qualifying for the London masters so I think he will want to do well.

Karlovic seems to have been indifferent recently, with his win against Cuevas in the 1st round ending a six match losing streak.

I didn't get in from the start. Instead I got on at 2-2 Karlovic to serve hoping for a break. I probably should have just waited as it's bound to be a Tie break, but you never know!

Wow there's a break! Soderling struggled to hold for 3-3 then breaks for a 3-4* lead.
Bit of a wobble again from Soderling on serve as he saves a break point to hold for a 3*-5 lead. A break and serve 1st in the 2nd would be nice Robin.

Karlovic holds from 0-30 meaning Soderling has to serve out the set. I hope he does it nice and easy unlike most of his other games. I wonder if his elbow is still troubling him?

15-40 Hold Soderling! ... 30-40 Ace please ... Deuce. Soderling just doesn't seem to look natural when playing his shots, it's almost as if he's having to force them all. GP... It says something when Karlovic looks more comfortable in the rallies. Set Soderling.

I am very tempted to get out now. In fact I am! I don't like what I've seen from Soderling in this 1st set so think Ivo may take the second.

£4.12 on Both

Soderling Wins  6-4 7-6(6)
Profit: £4.13

Feliciano Lopez v Arnaud Clement

It's 3-5* to Clement in the first set and he's available at odd of 1.41. I feel that that is good value so on I jump. He holds to love like a good boy to take the first set.

Lopez to serve 1st in the second so hopefully we can get an early break.

There it is 0-1* but I actually got out at 0-40 when 1.14 :-) Nice quick profit

£39.00 on Both

Clement Wins  6-3 6-1
Profit £39.00

Stanislas Wawrinka v David Guez

These two have never played each other before which is hardly surprising when this is only Guez's 6th match at main tour level despite being 27. 2 of the previous 5 coming a couple of weeks ago in Lyon and all 5 in France.

Wawrinka should win easily and if anything 1.16 is too high!

Stan breaks straight away for a 1*-0 lead.

When Stan wins I can withdraw the £150 I deposited this week so that I am only playing with profit again as this seems to be more profitable for me.

Oh my!! Guez breaks back for 1-1 :-(

Not sure what is going on with Wawrinka here he's been broken and now Guez leads 2-4* I had better start watching I suppose!

Right so I switched to Guez laying Wawa at 1.55. He served out the set. Decided to see if he could break Stan straight up but Stan holds. Back on Stan at 1.58. This could get messy very quickly!!

Switched back to Guez hoping for a break soon. 40-0 to deuce! C'mon Guez!! .. GP... Deuce #2... GP ... Double Fault for Deuce#3 ... GP ... Holds!

Uh oh!! First time I haven't managed to switch as odds kept moving away from me and we have 0-15... 0-30... Bloomin typical!!! ... 0-40 FFS ... BREAK!! Had I got the 1.72 I was after I could have greened up now :(

Now I need Wawrinka to do his usual trick of handing a break straight back please!
30-40 TAKE IT!!!! ....  BREAK!!!!! LOL Stan you're so predictable!!

Trainer for Wawrinka so staying with Guez
Typical trainer = 0-30!! Pfft...  15-30 ... c'mon the hold and we may even see a flip flop! ... 15-40... Guez looks done, Stan looks done! Wish I'd just stayed out of this one! Hindsight is such a wonderful thing ;-) 30-40 .. Deuce! ... BP damn over rule!!! ... Deuce#2 ... GP .... Ace Please!!! ... Deuce#3 ... GP Nice hands ... Holds!!! Now for the break!! 3*-3.

15-15 Stan looked really slow and laboured on that point ... 30-15 ... 30-30 Shot!! ...  Flip Flop very briefly ... 40-30 ... Deuce (flip flop again) ... 2nd serve ... BP Take It!!! ...

In fact no I'm out!! 16.34 on both!

Oh well should have waited he got the break! Anyway profit is profit :-) Especially when the 1.16 fav I backed is getting humped!!

Guez has seen 2 or 3 MP's come and go on Warinka's serve but Stan holds for 4-5*. Guez will have to serve this out then!

Guez Wins 6-3 6-4 
Profit: £16.34


Top tipping from me I think you'll agree sending a 1.16 shot down in flames for only Guez's 2nd ever tour win!!! LOL

Nicolas Almagro v Marco Chiudinelli

I jumped on almost straight after the Davydenko match with the score at 6-2 4-3* deuce. Got 1.24 hoping for the break.

Chiudinelli holds for 4-4. Almagro better not let me down now. Almagro holds for 5-4* a break now for GSM is the desired outcome here.

15-30 c'mon Nicolas... 15-40 ... 30-40 Take this one!!! ... Pffft Deuce! ... MP TAKE IT!!! ... 2nd serve ... GSM

Almagro Wins 6-2 6-4
Profit: £28.91

Nikolay Davydenko v Benjamin Becker

This should be a walk in the park for Davydenko and the odds suggest it at 1.11. However they do not put me off and I am lumping on. Davydenko is in fine form and a win today finally guarantees him a place in the year end finals so he will definitely win and win easy.

And a nice early break gives Davydenko a 2*-1 lead.
After saving break points to make it 3-1 Davydenko then goes on to get the double break for a commanding 4*-1 lead in the 1st set.

There's the first set 6-2. Becker to serve 1st in the second. going to hold my position as I think this should be over relatively quickly.

And finally he breaks Becker for a 1*-0 lead in the second.

And there you have it nice and easy game, set and match.

Davydenko Wins 6-2 6-1
Profit: £12.00