Tuesday, 17 October 2017

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans

Well I hope you've all had a good weekend, I know I have!! No punting for me and After watching Liverpool and Man Utd draw 0-0 I knew I'd dodged a bullet there as I'd have probably backed at least Over 0.5.

On to the NFL and looking at yesterday's results, again I dodged a bullet! Especially with the New York Giants beating the Denver Broncos. Wow didn't see that happening.

One bet I wish I had made tough was betting against the woeful Cleveland Browns. I can't believe that Houston Texans were available at 1.31 before the off. That would have been a nice easy return on my bank. Mind you I would have lost the lot backing the Broncos so glad I had the weekend off.

On to tonight's American Football and let's see what Monday Night Football has in store for us.

With both defences leaking points at an alarming rate the obvious thought would be for a high scoring game. But with no Andrew luck for the Colts and Marcus Mariota nursing an injury, if he plays, for the Titans the offences may not be able to capitalise on the poor defensive records. Under 46.5 is tempting at 2.02 but I think there may be a better bet.

Who will win? Well the Titans have home advantage and if Mariota's firing they should take this match. However that is a big uncertainty so the odds of 3.60 on Indianapolis becomes very tempting.

Then there is the handicap to look at and Colts are at evens (2.00) to win +6.5 points. Now that does start to make me think there is value. But I still fancy those big odds of 3.60

So my bet is going to be on Colts at 3.60 with a green out target of 1.80 to double my stake if it comes off.

Whatever you are on, let's hope it's a good game.

In the last minute of the 1st half Colts had a 10-9 lead and a 1st down in the red zone. The odds dropped as low as 1.62 but I had my green up set at 1.80 which had already been taken moments earlier. Colts failed to get the touchdown but converted the field goal for a 13-9 half time lead

Profit: £23.50
Bank: £48.16

Friday, 13 October 2017

Philadephia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers


So Carolina are rightly slight favourites with the home advantage in this one. My problem when looking at a bet is that it really is a coin toss so I will avoid the money line. If there is value there, it has to be on backing the Eagles @ 2.36.

I looked at the total points markets as I've had success here in the past and regardless of who wins you just have to weigh up if they are free scoring. These markets seem to have changed since I was betting regularly in the past and are on some kind of slider every 0.5 point. This doesn't seem to be helping liquidity so the only viable bet is Under/Over 44pts. I do think that this game could go over 50 points but the stuttering scoring from the Panthers a few weeks ago makes me cautious to take the Over 44 at 2.06.

So where can I find a bet? As I said I fancy a high scoring game but just in case Panthers falter I still think that Philadelphia are good value to score Over 20.5 points. I would have taken this bet at around 1.83 to 1.85 so to see q,92 available makes this the bet for me tonight.

Here's hoping for a great game, it looks a quality match up.

Philadelphia Eagles Cheerleaders
10-10 at half time. Panthers to get the ball at the start of the 2nd half.

1 minute into the 2nd half and Eagles get the interception. They get the touchdown and Doug Pederson must be on the same bet as me, he's going for the 2 point conversion after a flag on the first attempt. 18-10 to the Eagles.

Panthers got a field goal from there drive followed by the all important field goal from Philadelphia in return. 21-13 Eagles. More importantly my Over 20.5 point bet wins.

5 seconds into the 4th quarter and it's another touchdown for the Eagles. The extra point is good for 28-16. Right now I'm wishing I had a treble on this match with the three bets I mentioned above. Would have returned over 8/1. May not come in but looking very likely.

Profit: £11.52
Bank: £24.66

Not a bad evening with 140% increase of my starting bank. Long may it continue.

Sebastian Fanselow v Michael Mmoh

It's 7-6 5-4* when I lump on Fanselow hoping for a break and GSM... Odds at 1.47

Sebastian Fanselow
Well that's not good. Mmoh held then broke for a 5-6* lead in the 2nd. That's the first break of the match. Let's hope they are like buses and two come along at once.

Well, well... 15-40... And after a ridiculously long rally it's a break!! Yessss. Tie break time. Fanselow to serve first.

0*-3 back to 3-3* ....

Fanselow edges in front still on serve 5-4* 5-5*

Double Fault #2 of the TB brings up Match Point 6*-5... 2nd serve... GSM

Profit: £4.20
Bank: £13.56

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