Saturday, 9 January 2010

Testing some new strategies

As I have just spent the last 4 or 5 hours down my local rugby club singing and drinking I decided that I would withdraw my bank back down to £100. That a significant withdrawal and certainly means no need to work for me next week!! :-)

It's funny how grown men still get excited by snow! Put a few of them together and the excitement goes stratospheric.  The faces of wives and girlfriends from the clubhouse window as the boys played in the snow was one of those "kodak moments".

Anyway on to the Punting....

With the £100 I am just going to try some different approaches this week as I just keep myself in touch with markets in the run up to the Australian Open. I'm leaning more to the laying side of things. Discussions on the blog with the likes of Rev and GVL to name but a couple have made me change tack somewhat and so I'll have a dabble at laying more often this week.

Good luck and happy punting!!!

Dudi Sela v Stanislas Wawrinka

I fully expect Wawrinka to take this comfortably but can't believe I missed the start because I was on the phone. Came back to find Wawrinka with a BP on Sela's serve at 2-1* so I quickly lumped on at 1.24!!

Of course Sela Holds doesn't he!! LOL

2*-2 Now then Stan nice easy service game please! Hmm holds to 30 but got my heart racing a bit!!

3-2* Now for the break then? 15-30 c'mon Stan!! ... 30-30 ... 30-40 Take It!! ... Deuce ... GP ... Deuce ... GP ... Deuce ... BP #2!! This time? ... Pffft Deuce ... GP ... Holds. Oh STan :-(

3*-3 RIght a quick hold and let's get the pressure right back on Sela's serve please. Holds to 15.

4-3* Pressure please Stan.Hmmm Hold to love!!

4*-4 Don't stuff up now please. Holds to 30!!

5-4* break for the set then? 0-15 ... 0-30 ... 15-30 don't let him off again Stan!!...  FFS wild shot!! 30-30 ... SP TAKE IT!!! ... Pffft Deuce ... GP ... Deuce ... SP #2 ... FFS Deuce!!! ... GP ... Deuce ... Jeez how many chances does Stan need?? ... GP ... Really should be doing more on Sela's 2nd serve! ... Deuce ... C'mon just string 2 more points together!! ... DF for SP #3!!! ... Finally!! Set Wawrinka!! 6-4

Question now is whether to green out at 1.12? Stan has been in control all set and could have won a lot easier if he had taken a few more of his chances. I wouldn't back him at that price and I wouldn't lay him either if I wasn't already involved so I guess I'll let it ride a while.

Typical Wawrinka starts with 0-30 the time I decide not to green my bet!! 15-30 ... 30-30 ... Hold to 30.

1-0* A nice early break would be beneficial :-) Hold to Love!

1*-1 Jeez 0-30 Again!! What is Stan doing? 0-40!!! And we're back at the price I goyt in at! :-( Break!!! FFS why did I not green out at the end of the 1st set?

1-2* Oh well hopefully a temporary blip and he has been troubling Sela's serve in half his service games so plenty of chance to get back in this set. Holds to 15

1*-3 Sela has upped his level that's evident but the biggest difference to the 1st set is Warinka! He has started to look lethargic out there. Needs to hold well here as we're already above SP and it's only 1 break!! From 40-0 to 40-30 but he holds!!

2-3* Odds very high on Wawrinka here! 1.32 when a set up but a break down early in the 2nd!! That's only 1 or 2 ticks below SP! Punish the non believers Stan!! Holds to 30 :-(

2*-4 This time I want a love hold please! Put some pressure on Sela for the next game. 15-40 was not wanted Stan!! ... Deuce ... BP #3 ... Good hustle from Sela but ultimately it's Stan not playing the right shots that is letting him in here! ... Deuce ... GP ... Deuce ... BP #4 ... Break!!!

2-5* FFS Wawrinka has gone to sleep it would seem! I am switching at 1.62 here. Crazy price but not sure if Stan is interested anymore! LOL 0-15!! ... 40-15 ... 40-30 ... FFS Now we get to deuce!! SP #3 ... SET Sela 6-2.

Well as we go into the 3rd with Wawrinka to serve first I need evens to get out for nothing. I see the money is shifting back towards Warinka now which isn't a good sign!! My book stands at +2,271 Sela -2,273 Wawa!

Really could do with a break first game!! But knowing my luck in this match Stan will hold to love!! Stan holds to 30

1-0* Don't screw me over now Sela!! You have all the momentum and have been the far better player recently. A strong hold here will cast some doubts on Stan in the market. Holds to 15.

1*-1 Now then Dudi let's get at him this time and hopefully he'll fold! 0-15 C'mon!!! ... 15-15 ... 15-30 ... 2 more!! ... 15-40!!! TAKE IT!! I really should get out but let's see if he can take the break!! 2nd ... BREAK!!!!

Now I'm out!! Even green £746.13 on Both!!

Well I'm glad I did get out as Stan has broken straight back for 2*-2!!

Never in doubt!! Lol

Wawrinka Wins 6-4 2-6 7-5

Profit: £746.16

Janko Tipsarevic v Marin Cilic

I guess I should blame myself for wanting to bet on everything, but this schedule is starting to take it's toll. I had every intention of being up for the Henin v Clijsters match at am but here we are at 1pm and I've been up for about 15 mins!! I have also missed most of the Cilic match in which I really thought Marin was a great bet (such an aftertimer) The problem is that now I am going to lump on short odds as we reach the end of the match! I do hope I don't get burnt!!

The score is 6-1 4*-3 when I get involved at the lowly price of 1.05. Please do not choke Marin!!

5-3* Hold to 30 from Cilic. A break of the Tipsarevic serve for GSM would be good! MP #1!!!! Take It!!! ... Deuce ... MP #2 This time then!!! ...

Cilic Wins -1 6-3
Profit: £103.68

Flavia Pennetta v Yanina Wickmayer

Wickmayer won the first set 6-3. Looked very impressive especially as she came back from 1-3 down I believe.

Backed her at the start of the 2nd at odds of 1.46. 0-15 ... 0-30 ... got some layed off then cancelled the rest. 15-30 ... 15-40 C'mon!!! 30-40 Take It!!! BREAK!!!!

1*-0 Tried to go all green at 1.24 but not taken. Now it's 0-15 ... Crazy odds!! 1.39??? WTF?? 15-15(1.30) ... 15-30(1.38) ... These odds make no sense at all!! 15-40(1.45) But looks like they are going to get away with it again!! 30-40(1.38) ... Break!!(1.51)

1-1* Need Wickmayer to get ahead in this game now. Just can't get over this market!! 30-15(1.66) ... 30-30(1.53) ... 40-30(1.64) ... Deuce(1.52) ... GP(1.63) ... Deuce(1.51) ... BP(1.42????) ... Deuce(1.54) ... GP(1.60) ... Holds (1.65)

1*-2 Must do better Yanina! Unforced errors on Break Points!!! You can't get away with that very often Wicky!! I do hope it doesn't come back to bite us both on the bum! As for the odds I still am very confused!

2-2* Wicky holds to 15. Much better coming back from 0-15. Now a break would be nice!! Thankyou!!!

3*-2 Odds still 1.27??? WTF is this??

Finally there's 1.25 and I'm all green!
£233.47 on Both

 Well perhaps I should have held on to this one this time. Wickmayer is now 5*-2 up!!

Wickmayer Wins 6-3 6-2
Profit: £233.47

Gael Monfils v Radek Stepanek

Stepanek won the 1st set 6-2 which was quite a shock. As he was serving first in the 2nd I decided to let Stepanek hold his serve first game before getting on.

At 1-0 I jump on at 1.38. I just Hope Monfils throws in another dodgy service game here.

15-40 Take It!!! Break!! Monfils doesn't look like he's bothered here! I'm green and out anyway just in case!!

£331.06 on Both

Stepanek Wins 6-2 6-1
Profit: £331.06

Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards

Discipline out of the window I'm afraid! No tennis on till after 1am so I couldn't resist getting involved in the NBA

My bet was on Magic pre off @1.31. Hoping for an early lead and a nice green.

Magic did take an early lead but the odds didn't come down far enough. Yhe first period ended 29-29.

Magic finally opened up a big enough lead in the middle of the 2nd period so I greened out at 1.17.

£114.16 on Both

Washington Win 104-97
Profit: £114.16

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