Wednesday, 23 September 2009

Testing a graph

Chelsea v QPR

While the tennis is still on I thought I'd better update you of my latest bet. I've avoided the goals market and instead gone for a Chelsea win.

Back Chelsea 1.24 £4.49 £1.08
Ref: 9000224644 Bet matched:19:54 23-Sep-09
1.24 £119.07 £28.58
Ref: 9000224644 Bet matched:19:54 23-Sep-09

0-0 at half time! :( But Lampard is on for Malouda. Never thought I'd say this but C'mon Chelsea :0

1-0 :) Kalou scores

Lay Chelsea 1.1 £138.03 £151.83 £13.80
Ref: 9001043261 Bet matched: 20:56 23-Sep-09

£15.17 Chelsea
£13.85 QPR
£13.85 Draw

Chelsea 1.11 £1.24 £1.38 £0.14
Ref: 9001101116 Bet matched: 21:02 23-Sep-09

£15.04 on all outcomes now

Chelsea Win 1-0
Profit £15.04
Bank: £138.60

Gicquel v Mathieu

Well when I looked earlier I couldn't make my mind up on this one as two very unpredictable players, both French and playing in France. I was erring towards thinking it'll be a case of 1 set pour vous and 1 set pour moi! That was when PHM was at around 1.8. Now he's come in to 1.50 and I really don't know what to make of that!

On paper PHM wins but last time they played it was a comfortable victory for Mahut on indoor hard!

Suck it and see I guess and see if the price movement was caused by any insider knowledge!

Probably just fav backers lumping on at any price as last match of the day though :)

And break for 0-2* PHM. Is this just that they decided he will win the first set? I am thinking I will not get involved in this unless we get a 3rd now.

Hmm the money has started to lay PHM despite the chance of a further break. I am thinking we have the one all set scenario even more now! Please prove me wrong for the sake of the sport!!

3*-4 Break back!!! Not sure it helps the integrity of the match though when in the game prior to the break so much money was trying to lay PHM eventhough he was pressuring :(

4-4 and the money came for PHM again! Held to love! If this is break for the set then someone has made a killing out there!

Well it seems money is laying PHM again so maybe (and hopefully) it's just a canny trader :)

Hmm seems it's just money backing the server for now.

5*-6 money not backing the server this time!

6-6 Who knows???? Sometimes tennis is a beautifully simple game other times it is so complex sigi freud would struggle to comprehend the minds of the players and the market!

And set PHM. Now ill he push on or will we have a returned set? All eyes on the market I guess and watch out for those nasty manipulators ;)

1*-0 PHM breaks. Well the pre match move was proved correct but the rest wasn't. Unless we have Gicquel to win this set on a tb LOL Strange old market though and I suppose once it's got the jitters they stay!

Mathieu wins 7-6(5) 6-4 Straight forward and I didn't get on!

Fognini v Almagro

Ok next up we have the destroyer of my bank yesterday, Fognini! I think Almagro should be the victor here but again I feel the price is wrong. I would say that Almagro should be 1.4 at the lowest. The problem I have is that Fognini has been a slow starter of late and therefore laying the 1.28, while seeming like value to trade, is not the best move imo. If Fognini keeps it together from the off we may see 1.4/1.5 towards the end of the set at which time I will make my decision. Otherwise I'm afraid this may be a no bet scenario.

Well there you go. The slow starter breaks stright away! 1*-0 Fognini.

3*-0 Fognini!!!! :0 and a flip flop to boot!

Fognini takes the 1st set 6-4. I fully expect Almagro to take the second but I'm not brave enough to put my money where my mouth is just yet ;)

Fognini gets the 1st break in the second set to lead 2*-1. You have to start wondering if Almagro is actually that bothered, though he did stage a mini revival in the 1st. His response here will be telling for me.

2-2 Almagro breaks back. Now will we see him kick on?

4-4 Getting to the business end of the set now. I fancy a break for Fognini here!

4*-5 He had the break point but didn't convert now has to serve to stay in the set. Odds just below evens mean that regardles of the outcome of this set there will be people crowing on the Betfair forum saying "fanx for the x.xx mugs!!" You've got to love 'em :)

Tie break and I'm on

Back Fabio Fognini 1.66 £95.49 £63.02
Ref: 8998012210 Bet matched:17:15 23-Sep-09

And out again

Lay Fabio Fognini 1.27 £2.83 £3.59 £0.76
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £7.56 £9.60 £2.04
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £15.00 £19.05 £4.05
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £22.47 £28.54 £6.07
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £22.47 £28.54 £6.07
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £22.47 £28.54 £6.07
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09
1.27 £32.01 £40.65 £8.64
Ref: 8998029182 Bet matched: 17:17 23-Sep-09

£28.07 on both

Fognini Wins 6-4 7-6(3)
Win: £28.07 But GVL won't be happy with the £30 loss ;)
Bank: £123.57

Korolev v Istomin

2 nd set Istomin leads 6-3 4-3* got on at 1.39

Back Denis Istomin 1.39 £22.95 £8.95
Ref: 8995362232 Bet matched:13:59 23-Sep-09
1.39 £22.95 £8.95
Ref: 8995362232 Bet matched:13:59 23-Sep-09
1.39 £54.88 £21.40
Ref: 8995362232 Bet matched:13:59 23-Sep-09

4-4 Odds out to 1.6! If he can hold this the pressure will really be on Korolev to serve to stay in the match. The benefit of serving 1st. :) (If he holds):0

5-4* If you want to see a crazy price then there it was people laying Istomin at 1.44!!! Korelv has been broken 3 times in 9 service games and now has the added pressure of serving to stay in the match. Give me a break ;) (In both senses :) )

5-5 Pressure back on..... ME ;) Come on give us a strong hold for a change Istomin and then you have the free game prior to a tb :)

5-6* Broken to 30!! Plonker, don't know if that refers to me or him! ;) A break back is written in the stars though :)

SET Korolev Istomin not doing enough when he puts the pressure on Korolev's serve it seems. Still lets see what happens in the decider.

0*-1 Hold to 15 by Istomin is a good start. Lets put the pressure on now!

1-1* Hold to 15 from Korolev. Odds around 1.65 on Korolev

1*-2 Good hold under pressure of 30-30 from Istomin. Now Korolev has to sit down and think. Ball is in his court. Who will show the first weakness? Odds around 1.80 Korolev

2-2* Istomin had bp 2nd serve and didn't convert then deuce and 2nd serve twice and lost the point twice. As my old school reports would say "Must do better" :)

2*-3 Hold to love! and we have a flip flop! Istomin now, rightly imo, fav at around 1.95. Korolev got to sit and think again at the change over. Never easy in a deciding set when the score says you're trailing even tough it's really level.

3-3 Impressive love hold from Korolev.

I have redded out in that game for a loss of £41.98 on both :( Just felt Korolev was gonna nick it May look to rescue it yet though!

3*-4 Bit pof a wobble from Istomin but holds to 30.

This was me redding out:

Back Evgeny Korolev 1.69 £2.43 £1.68
Ref: 8996019625 Bet matched:14:46 23-Sep-09
1.69 £2.60 £1.79
Ref: 8996019625 Bet matched:14:46 23-Sep-09
1.69 £58.20 £40.16
Ref: 8996019625 Bet matched:14:46 23-Sep-09
1.79 £8.99 £7.10
Ref: 8995985949 Bet matched:14:43 23-Sep-09
1.89 £3.37 £3.00
Ref: 8996009095 Bet matched:14:45 23-Sep-09
1.89 £5.70 £5.07
Ref: 8996009095 Bet matched:14:45 23-Sep-09

Well they've both had the opportunities to win this but now we find ourselves in a 3rd set tb!

Korolev wins 3-6 7-5 7-6(2)

Bullet dodged
Loss: £41.98
Bank: £95.49
Profit: -£205.28

Beck v Ascione

Interesting one this as Ascione has had a couple of good wins coming into this match. However Beck is my pick as he is the better player and had a comfortable victory himself against Lu. I have taken Beck at 1.56 from the off purely because I price this match up at aroung 1.35/1.40 and feel the price is so high as people read too much into Ascione's previous matches.

Looks like it's Ascione to serve first so we will see how it pans out.

Back Andreas Beck 1.56 £100.78 £56.44
Ref: 8994906194 Bet matched:13:08 23-Sep-09

1*-0 Couldn't have asked for a better start finally converts his 3rd Break point. Let's hope he can consolidate it now.

2-0* Hold to love! This is indeed an impressive start from Beck. 1.25 is still far too high for me to green out on though. Another break would bring the odds down to where they should be.

3-1* Another hold to love. Odds getting more tempting but still a shade high for my liking.

4*-1 Break to Beck. Very confident start indeed. Odds still a couple of ticks too high for me at 1.15 so I'll stick with the bet.

Greened out at 1.13

Lay Andreas Beck 1.13 £28.00 £31.64 £3.64
Ref: 8995079589 Bet matched: 13:32 23-Sep-09
1.13 £52.12 £58.90 £6.78
Ref: 8995079589 Bet matched: 13:32 23-Sep-09
1.13 £59.01 £66.68 £7.67
Ref: 8995079589 Bet matched: 13:32 23-Sep-09

The reasoning behind this is that I had Beck as a 1.35 shot. I have greened for £36.70 on both. Therefore I have won the amount I feel I should have won for sticking the entire match yet it is only in the 1st set. :)

Beck Wins
Profit: £36.70

Chang v Groenfeld

Groenfeld lost the first set in a tb and I thought she would come back strongly as the stats were very even. However, Chang broke 1st game and then held comfortably for 2-0. Got on Chang at odds of 1.25 so we will see how it develops.

Groenfeld holds to 15. Odds out to 1.35ish. Need another strong hold from Chang to keep up the pressure here.

Chang broken to 15!!!! odds in the 1.60's Will Groenfeld hold now? possible flip flop if she does!

Groenfeld holds to love!!! odds around evens. NEEEEEED a hold now!

3-3 Chang holds from 15-30 pressure now back on Groenfeld. odds in the 1.80's is too high on Chang imho.

4*-3 Chang breaks at her 3rd time of asking. A hold now and we should be home! Odds are back to 1.25.

4-4 Pffff Chang broken straight back! Odds around 1.72 are about right now. Can we have another break? I hope so as I have to collect my daughter from playschool in 9 mins!!!!

4*-5 Groenfeld holds to 30! Just under evens for Groenfeld now which is fair I suppose. Pressure on the yougster Chang to serve to stay in the set now. This will be a fine test of her mettle. May have to go get my daughter any minute so will have to leave my bet to ride!

SET Groenfeld Chang saved 1 bp only to df and hand another straight back which Groenfeld converted. Interesting final set coming up as Chang has demonstrated that she can hang with Groenfeld. Odds are 1.64 on Groenfeld and she serves first. A break would be a nice start. The Mrs is back in time to pick up my daughter by the way so I'm staying put :)

0*-1 Groenfeld holds to 30. Writing may be on the wall here unless Chang can get her service games going. Groenfeld now 1.41.

0-2* Break! :( Chang has gone me thinks a break to love! Need a break back here or it's goodnight Vienna again!! LOL 1.16 Groenfeld

0*-3 Groenfeld holds to 15. That's 5 straight games now for ALG. However sub 1.10 odds do not reflect the match imho. It is only one service break and there is still plenty of time for Chang to get back into this. If I wasn't already all in I would be laying.

And another break to 15. OK Chang is gawn!!! Thing that annoys me personally is my initial thought was to get on ALG. If she had held 1st game in 2nd set that would have been my bet. Oh well you live and learn!

1*-4 Chang gets a break back. Odds still 1.03. C'mon Chang show me a miracle :)

2-4* A HOLD!!!! Now can we have some pressure put on ALG's serve this game. :) Odds are 1.09

3*-4 Break!! I believe in miracles you sexy Chang :) Odds are 1.3 now which is definitely too low imho! A hold here and we should be 1.80 plus! Maybe it's a case of you have 6 games, I'll have 6 games ;) Here's hoping!

3-5* Break :( fights back from 0-40 only to hand the break! I hate it when that happens. Mind you whoever was backing at 1.05 when it was 0-40 is brave as even with the break ALG has only held 9/15 service games.

GSM ALG :( Fair play to her coming back from a set and a break down. But if Chang had just stuck with her at the start of the 3rd rather than go walkabout it could have been so different.

Well this Blog is getting off to a great start!!! LOL 4 bets and 2 losers! Don't worry folks I had already reloaded another ton during that match as I was also watching Kohlschreiber match.

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