Wednesday, 25 November 2009

Rafael Nadal v Nikolay Davydenko

Well I thought Davy was the bet here but the drift today has been quite alarming. This morning I was expecting Davydenko to be trading around 1.80 on Betfair but now it is Nadal who is favourite and trading at 1.90. I would have had Davydenko as favourite, he is on good form whereas Nadal is not. He does well on the indoor season whereas Nadal does not. It would seem that Davydenko's reputation is still tarnished from Sopot and people panic when they start to see a drift. There are also concerns over Davydenko saying he has had undiagnosed breathing problems. Whether that will be a factor we shall see. I have been spooked by the market as in the Djokovic match earlier and as such will sit on my hands and watch and wait. A shame really as before the drift I felt that anything over 1.80 was value on Davydenko!! LOL.

Should have gone with my own opinion and I could have had a nice green now as Davydenko breaks for a 0-2* lead in the 1st set.

Breathing problems? I'll give him breathing problems for saying it and spooking the market and then me!! Another break for a 1-5* lead. I'm getting on now as Nadal is not going to fight back from this with a Davis Cup Final around the corner! He doesn't even look like he wants to continue!!

Set Davydenko 1-6. A nice break straight away for Davydenko in the second is the order for the day with a nice side of a hold with a double break to follow please :-)

1-0* Grrrr Davydenko had the BP but Nadal saves. No funny business now Nikolay! Nadal is on the ropes so keep him there!

FFS another Nadal service game and another BP wasted!! ... BP#2 Take It!! ... Pffft it doesn't matter how bad he's playing you have to take your chances or you might get punished Davy! ... GP ...  Holds for 2-1*

2*-2 Gotta get the break this time Davy! ... 0-15 ... 0-30 Oi Oi!! ... 15-30 ... 15-40 Take One!!!! 30-40 FFS TAKE IT NIKOLAY!!! ... ARRRGGGGHHHH Deuce :-( ... BP#3 ... 3rd time lucky? ... YEEESSSSSS!!! Break for 2-3*

1.13??? Are they havin' a Giraffe? I can't green at that should easily be sub 1.10!! Hold my position so do NOT let me down Davy!!! FFS a double fault hands Nadal 2 BP!!! 1st one saved! C'mon! Deuce now hold Davy!! BP #3 .... What a complete and utter tool! ... Deuce ... GP ... HOLDS!!


2*-4 And still 1.13???
3-4* Just two service holds away Davy.... FOCUS not HOCUS POCUS!!
Here we go again 0-30 ... 15-30 ... 30-30 c'mon Davy ... 30-40 :-( ... Deuce!! c'mon Davy!!! ... BP#2 WTF is this crap Nikolay? ... BREAK!!!

This should have been over long ago It could have been 0-6 had Davy taken his chances. Joke!!!

Davy wins 6-1 7-6(4)
Profit: £210.46

That was one of those matches that I just had to turn off the computer and watch to stop myself doing anything silly and start again in the final set. Had I kept it on I think Iwould have switched 2 or 3 times LOL

Bryan/Bryan v Dlouhy/Paes

Both teams lost their 1st matches here but I think that doesn't really have too much significance for this encounter. The Bryan Brothers will be looking to avenge their US Open semi final defeat here and I really fancy them to do so. I will lump on them to start with hoping for an early lead so I can green out. It may well go to another Champions tiebreak but hopefully I'll have been in and out by then.

Let's just hope Wodderwick isn't in the crowd!

Good luck if you're on and Happy Punting!

And out after the 1st break
£101.50 on Both.

Bryans Win 6-3 6-4 
Profit: £101.50

Novak Djokovic v Robin Soderling

Originally I thought this would be the banker bet of the day on Djokovic but the pre-match drift made me sit up and pay attention. In the warm up the commentators on Betfair video said he was unwell after the last match so that may explain it. Mind made up not to get involved early on now.

So Soderling takes the 1st set tiebreak as he finally remembers that all he has in his game is to hit the ball as hard as possible.

Soderling gets the first break in the second set to take a 1-2* lead. A bit early in the set to be lumping on though.

OK 1*-3 and I'm all in c'mon the double break or at least serve it out Robin please!

Get in!!! 1-4* This is surely over!!! 1*-5 End it now Robin!

Soderling Wins 7-6(5) 6-1

Profit: £78.97

Kubot/Marach v Mirnyi/Ram

I really hate this format of doubles with the champions Tiebreak instead of the final set and the even more ridiculous deuce deciding point rule. It makes doubles so unpredictable it's impossible to bet on!!!

But I like a challenge so I will have a bet!! LOL
Kubot and Marach did very well beating Dlouhy and Paes in their first match but they let their opponent have opportunities despite not playing that well. Mirnyi and Ram however were imperious in their victory over the Bryan brothers with incredible serving stats that hardly gave their opponents a sniff.

Due to this I can't see past them today so have lumped on the Beast!!

Good luck if your with me and Happy Punting.

Marach gets lucky on serve with Ram not getting the 2nd serve deciding point back. 1-1 it is.

Grrrrrr Again Marach saves Deciding Point on second serve for 3-3
Even Kubot isn't exactly excelling on serve today, but Mirnyi/Ram not taking the openings. I hope it doesn't cost them!

Marach now has to serve to stay in the set! Surely the break will come now!
15-40 which is actually 3 Break Points in this format! ... 30-40 ... Deuce & Deciding Point ... Take IT!!!! FFS ... Finally!! Set Mirnyi and Ram

That's enough for me out and green

£81.88 on Both

Getting out seems like the right decision as we are now heading into a Champions Tiebreak to decide the match after Kubot and Marach won the 2nd set  6-4.

Well Well Kubot/Marach Win 16-14 in the TB

Profit: £81.88

Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors

Gone for the home town Favourite in this one.

Yet again I have no idea what their form is just hoping for a strong start and then green out :-) Hopefully try and make 10% on the market then I'll be happy. I do like a well researched bet!!

Stream available here 

And I'm out after less than 3 mins as Toronto open up a 12-4 lead.

£38.17 on both
Well over the 10% I was looking for! :-)

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