Thursday, 24 September 2009

Another day Another dollar (Lost)

Well well I don't think I had a wrong pick today! And lost! :(

Not to worry I must have been in completely the wrong mindset in the Monfils game. This is why the blog helps. I took a few hours away and came back and re read it! Absolutely spot on with pre-match analysis yet switch completely at a hint of trouble so early. Not my game style so I can't find an explanation anywhere. A moment of madness if you will.

It all helps in the learning curve but it is starting to show a depressing trend on this blog! This is only the end of the 3rd day and I have had to re-deposit 3 times!

But as ever we must reflect and learn from the past but look to the future. £100 bank again but eating away at my winnings slowly but surely now £8,850.

And so on to another day! :) See you tomorrow folks... Sweet dreams ;)

Monfils v Grosjean

Call me crazy if you wish but I have taken Monfils from the off here at 1.18

Back Gael Monfils 1.18 £178.52 £32.13
Ref: 9007109954 Bet placed: 18:04 24-Sep-09

I think Grosjean had his hurrah in the victory over Mahut here and Monfils will just have too much firepower for him. It may be over quite quickly too with Grosjean probably very sore after his first match in a long time yesterday. I'm an old man too and know what it feels like ;)

1-0* Solid enough start from Monfils with a hold to 15. Early break would be the desired outcome here don't want Monfils thinking of jetting off to the far east just yet!

1*-1 Ok maybe should have waited as Grosjean winding back the years with a love service game. Monfils has apparently voiced concerns over his wrist earlier in the week too!! It's not what I want to hear!

The 3rd BP was enough to change my mind here and full switch to Grosjean at 1.31

Lay Gael Monfils 1.31 £182.38 £238.92 £56.54
Ref: 9007274465 Bet matched: 18:25 24-Sep-09
1.31 £495.04 £648.50 £153.46
Ref: 9007274465 Bet matched: 18:25 24-Sep-09

In a mess this book now but if Grosjean keeps this up I'll have ample opps to trade it out.

2-1* He saved 4 bp in that game. Don't punish me for the switch now Grosjean another strong hold and we should be around the 1.30 mark anyway.

For clarity as Grosjean saves a bp!
My book
-177.87 Monsfils
477.45 Grosjean

3*-1 Break Monfils :( Grosjean saved the 1st then had gp but eventually broken. Not over by a margin and hopefully the break will come straight back.

4-1* Easy quick hold for Monfils! I hate it when I get spooked by a bet. Always ends in disaster. Rule number 1 never panic!! LOL

5*-1 Break to 30 for Monfils. I'm seeing exactly the match I anticipated pan out before my eyes!!! Yet I'm staring defeat down the barrel of a gun! C'mon grandad lets be having some fight for us oldies hey! :)

SET Monfils! I told you it would be quick :(

Well that was one of my worst trades ever I don't mind when I get it wrong but when I'm right but spook myself it hurts. I'm off to read a book to my little girl and put her to bed :)

Back later.

Pavl/Trifu v Cuevas/Granollers

Firstly what are Betfair doing putting such a mug market up?

Secondly what am I doing betting on it!!!!! :D

Back Cuevas/Granollers 1.04 £171.94 £6.88
Ref: 9005334332 Bet matched:15:23 24-Sep-09

Better explain this a bit I suppose :)

Cuevas/Gran were a set and a break up plus 15-40 to go 2 breaks up in the second when I got on. They broke then held and are now 7-5 4-0* 0*-30 :)

5*-0 Easy peasy this doubles lark ;)

Cuevas/ Granollers win 7-5 6-0
Profit £6.58
Bank: £178.52

Tipsarevic v Ljubicic

Difficult one to call as the odds suggest. I fancy Tipsy to shade this in a tight 3 setter. Have lumped on far too early though and at a bad price.

Janko Tipsarevic 1.95 £138.74 £131.80
Ref: 9003820108 Bet matched:12:24 24-Sep-09

Took 1.95 on Tipsy when it was 0-30! Terrible terrible bet! :(

Ljubo holds to 30! 0*-1 :(

1-1 Hold to love from Tipsy makes me feel less nervous but really could do with a break now so I don't get punished for a rash punt!

2*-1 Break Finally got there 2nd time of asking :) Sticking with my bet for the time being to see if Tipsy has another easy service game.

3-1* Another hold to love even with 2 2nd serves in that one. Staying put at the moment. This may just be one of those days for Ljubo. Sad to see as he used to be great to watch up to a couple of years ago.

3*-2 Hold to 15. That has got my attention may look to offload this at the first sign of a wobble from Tipsy. Ljubo may have come to fight!

0-15 was enough for me to dump it!!

Lay Janko Tipsarevic 1.56 £39.15 £61.07 £21.92
Ref: 9003956212 Bet matched: 12:49 24-Sep-09
1.56 £50.00 £78.00 £28.00
Ref: 9003956212 Bet matched: 12:49 24-Sep-09

May have held out longer if I hadn't got such a stupid opening position but where my book was there was no other option

£33.20 on both

4-2* Hold to deuce but only after saving 3bp's. I'm happy with my decision to bail and happy with my return so far so early in what is looking like it will be a close match.

Tipsy takes the set 6-4 odds are 1.47 so happy enough with my position at the moment. If anything Ljub is on top now, love service games and winning points of Tipsy's serve. Let's see if he can hold 1st game though ;) Still expecting 3 sets.

0*-1 So typical of Ljubo of late totally dominant with he serve when it doesn't matter and fragile when it does. Just about manages the hold after facing 4bps!!

0-2* One of the most frustrating things in tennis betting!! Your guy wastes 4bp's then moments later gets broken himself! I'm feeling your pain Tipsy backers :(

0*-3 HEEEEELLLLLOOOO!!!! Ljub suddenly gone up a gear or Tipsy fading? Definitely glad I got out!! :)

Looks like that's all from me folks! Work calls, got a client popping round in ten minutes so better get ready! I will update when I'm done. Good luck all.

So I obviously missed a heck of a comeback from Tipsy!

Tipsarevic Wins 6-4 7-6(3)
Profit £33.20
Bank: £171.94

Bychkova v Amanmuradova

Just started watching and Bychkova had 3bp's for a 6-4 5*-4 lead. Nearly jumped on for a quick buck at 1.12!!! However Amanmuradova then won 5 straight points to hold! :(

5-5 Hold to love from Bychkova is mighty impressive in the circumstances.

5*-6 Hold to 15 from Aman

SET Amanmuradova break to 15!! Blimey Bychkova will be kicking herself here. This should have been over!

1-1* Good hold by Bychkova from 15-40 then another BP! Aman really should have done better against quite a few 2nd serves. Be an interesting service game now! Especially as Aman matched in the low 1.40's in previous game.

0-40 2nd serve - Not taken
15-40 2nd serve - Not taken
30-40 - Break! Finally for 2*-1

Not much confidence in Bychkova 2*-1 up and 1.47 where as Aman was 1.4 even without the break!

3-1* Hold to love. Tempting odds at 1.33 but too early in a deciding set in WTA to make a move I think. May regret not taking that price but better safe than sorry.

3*-2 Hold to 30. No regrets ;) 1.48 available now but it takes a brave man to back the serve in WTA!

3-3 Break to love! 1.44 matched just now on Aman!!!

3*-4 Yet another Break point wasted by Bychkova and this time it may be telling. Needs to hold here or it's curtains I think. Shame as seems to have played the better of the two, just not converted her chances!

4-4* Hold to 30. Pressure back on Aman. I feel Bych needs to break here or next time as can't see her holding twice more consecutively.

5*-4 Break! SHe takes the Bp at first time of asking to break to 30. Big question now is though can she serve it out. Market not confident she can, I am more confident but will keep my money in my pocket unless we get 30-0 and maybe try and nick a few quid!

5-5* Break to 30. That's got to put the mental aspect of the match in Aman's favour now! A hold here and I think it may finally be over.

5*-6 Hold to 15. This game decides the match then. A hold and Bych should go on to take the tb imo. A break and obviously Aman wins. Don't know why I'm rooting for her but c'mon Bychkova! Maybe because she really should have had this match wrapped up a couple of times now.

6-6 Tie break hold to 15. I wished for it but didn't think it would actually happen. Now then Bychkova don't let yourself down here.

From 3-0* to 3*-3 in tb is not good!

Terrible TB for Bychkova after going 3-0 up she lost 4-7!! handing the last 2 points over from her own serve!

Just goes to show sometimes the best bet is NO BET! :)

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