Monday, 23 October 2017

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots

Here we are folks. The replay of probably the best Superbowl ever!!! Falcons looking for revenge on the road at Patriots.

I think that with the Pats having home field advantage they are rightly favourites at 1.71. Neither of these teams are playing at the levels of last year, so it could go either way. A bit of a blind punt picking an outright winner, but if I was forced to get off the fence... I'd have to go with my gut and back the Patriots.

One thing is for sure in my mind is that Pats can score points! Their defence is statistically the worst in the NFL this season I believe but that can be deceiving. I fancy both teams to score over 20 points so will have a look at some bets that match my thoughts.

Over 56.5 points is marginally odds on!!! currently at 1.98. Well I guess everyone thinks there will be lots of points. That does not seem like value to me as that is a lot of points to get my win.

New England Over 2.5 touchdowns at around 1.44 looks an interesting bet but there is no money in the market so I think I will struggle to get any on it, but will definitely have a dabble there for what I can get matched.

A scoreless 1st quarter would have had the Overs backers sweating! 2 minutes into the 2nd quarter and Pats get the first score Touchdown!! Extra point is good. Pats lead 7-0.

Falcons went for it on 4th and 7 from the Patriots 47 yard line with 2 minutes to go in the half as they trailed 10-0 and weren't successful. So over to Brady to work his 2 minute magic as the fog comes in. Boom Touchdown! And the extra point is good,17-0 lead into the half time. That leaves me needing Pats to get 1 more touchdown in the 2nd half.

After the Falcons miss their 2nd Field Goal of the night the PAtriots get to the Atlanta 2 yard line, but can't quite get over. Despite me obviously screaming at them to go for it they opt instead for the Field Goal and a 20-0 lead. I think I may need Falcons to get back in to this match to guarantee the third New England touchdown.

We're at the 2 minute warning in the 4th Quarter. Pats have 1st and 10 at the Falcons 17 yard line and a 23-7 lead. Going to run the clock down to end thegame :-( Go for the stats Pats!!! Boooo.

Glad it was a small market!

Loss: £10.86
Bank: 79.00 

Sunday, 22 October 2017

Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool

This Sunday's big match up is Spurs v Liverpool from Wembley.

I think this one is most likely to end in a draw as both teams are relatively evenly matched. But a 1 goal margin either way wouldn't be unexpected. Both teams can score goals and with Liverpool remembering where the back of the net is in midweek I think this one should bring home an Over 1.5 Goals bet.

Checking the odds on the Over 1.5 Goals and it's 1.25. Thank you very much I'll have a slice of that action.

4 minutes into to the match and Harry Kane opens the scoring. 1-0. I think I'll green out as it's so early in the game.

12 minutes and Spurs double their lead!! 2-0

Over 1.5 Goals Wins

Profit: £12.41
Bank: £89.85

Tuesday, 17 October 2017

UEFA Champions League Tuesday 17th October 2017

Eight Champions League Group matches to choose from tonight.

APOEL v Dortmund

Obviously Dortmund should win this one. But away from home and only 1.27... Move on for me I think.

Feyenoord v Shakhtar Donetsk

I don't know enough about either team to have a confident bet on this. It's the kind of game I usually only get involved in when there's nothing else on Hahaha!

Manchester City v Napoli

The first of the three English sides in action tonight. City have been scoring for fun recently and Napoli also usually have goals in them. So I had a look at the Overs markets. However over 1.5 is only available at 1.15 and when two free scoring teams come head to head it probably has 0-0 nailed on! I can't bring my self to back the 1.62 on a City win either.

Monaco v Besiktas

I fancy Monaco in this one but they've had some indifferent form the last few games. Looking at Over 1.5 Goals 1.22 seems just slightly low for me.

Maribor v Liverpool

I am a Liverpool fan so should probably look elsewhere! Even as a fan away from home in Europe, 1.19 is too low. The markets I am interested in here are on goals. Liverpool's leaky defence is well documented but they have to start banging them in at the other end sometime soon. With an attacking looking team tonight I'm going to have a crack at Over 2.5 at 1.47.

RB Leipzig v FC Porto

A lack of knowledge on this fixture makes me move on by

Real Madrid v Tottenham

The last of the three English sides playing tonight. I think Spurs may be able to get something from this fixture as Real have not been great this season. Backing Spurs at 7.6 hoping they score first and green out is something to consider. The goals markets are very low too so probably another bore draw!

Spartak Moscow v Sevilla

Apart from expecting a Sevilla win I've not really looked at this one.

So to summarise I am backing Spurs for the win and looking to green out if they get ahead. Also backing Over 2.5 goals in the Liverpool match.

Good luck whatever your bets (unless they re the opposite of mone!)

4 minutes in and Liverpool have gone 0-1 up through a Roberto Firmino goal.
13 minutes and Phillipe Coutinho doubles the lead 0-2 Liverpool.
19 minutes BOOOM!!! Salah makes it 0-3

Profit: £17.09
Bank: £65.35

29 minutes and Spurs have scored in Madrid!!! 0-1 Greening up as promised!

Profit: £12.09
Bank: £77.44

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans

Well I hope you've all had a good weekend, I know I have!! No punting for me and After watching Liverpool and Man Utd draw 0-0 I knew I'd dodged a bullet there as I'd have probably backed at least Over 0.5.

On to the NFL and looking at yesterday's results, again I dodged a bullet! Especially with the New York Giants beating the Denver Broncos. Wow didn't see that happening.

One bet I wish I had made tough was betting against the woeful Cleveland Browns. I can't believe that Houston Texans were available at 1.31 before the off. That would have been a nice easy return on my bank. Mind you I would have lost the lot backing the Broncos so glad I had the weekend off.

On to tonight's American Football and let's see what Monday Night Football has in store for us.

With both defences leaking points at an alarming rate the obvious thought would be for a high scoring game. But with no Andrew luck for the Colts and Marcus Mariota nursing an injury, if he plays, for the Titans the offences may not be able to capitalise on the poor defensive records. Under 46.5 is tempting at 2.02 but I think there may be a better bet.

Who will win? Well the Titans have home advantage and if Mariota's firing they should take this match. However that is a big uncertainty so the odds of 3.60 on Indianapolis becomes very tempting.

Then there is the handicap to look at and Colts are at evens (2.00) to win +6.5 points. Now that does start to make me think there is value. But I still fancy those big odds of 3.60

So my bet is going to be on Colts at 3.60 with a green out target of 1.80 to double my stake if it comes off.

Whatever you are on, let's hope it's a good game.

In the last minute of the 1st half Colts had a 10-9 lead and a 1st down in the red zone. The odds dropped as low as 1.62 but I had my green up set at 1.80 which had already been taken moments earlier. Colts failed to get the touchdown but converted the field goal for a 13-9 half time lead

Profit: £23.50
Bank: £48.16

Friday, 13 October 2017

Philadephia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers


So Carolina are rightly slight favourites with the home advantage in this one. My problem when looking at a bet is that it really is a coin toss so I will avoid the money line. If there is value there, it has to be on backing the Eagles @ 2.36.

I looked at the total points markets as I've had success here in the past and regardless of who wins you just have to weigh up if they are free scoring. These markets seem to have changed since I was betting regularly in the past and are on some kind of slider every 0.5 point. This doesn't seem to be helping liquidity so the only viable bet is Under/Over 44pts. I do think that this game could go over 50 points but the stuttering scoring from the Panthers a few weeks ago makes me cautious to take the Over 44 at 2.06.

So where can I find a bet? As I said I fancy a high scoring game but just in case Panthers falter I still think that Philadelphia are good value to score Over 20.5 points. I would have taken this bet at around 1.83 to 1.85 so to see q,92 available makes this the bet for me tonight.

Here's hoping for a great game, it looks a quality match up.

Philadelphia Eagles Cheerleaders
10-10 at half time. Panthers to get the ball at the start of the 2nd half.

1 minute into the 2nd half and Eagles get the interception. They get the touchdown and Doug Pederson must be on the same bet as me, he's going for the 2 point conversion after a flag on the first attempt. 18-10 to the Eagles.

Panthers got a field goal from there drive followed by the all important field goal from Philadelphia in return. 21-13 Eagles. More importantly my Over 20.5 point bet wins.

5 seconds into the 4th quarter and it's another touchdown for the Eagles. The extra point is good for 28-16. Right now I'm wishing I had a treble on this match with the three bets I mentioned above. Would have returned over 8/1. May not come in but looking very likely.

Profit: £11.52
Bank: £24.66

Not a bad evening with 140% increase of my starting bank. Long may it continue.

Sebastian Fanselow v Michael Mmoh

It's 7-6 5-4* when I lump on Fanselow hoping for a break and GSM... Odds at 1.47

Sebastian Fanselow
Well that's not good. Mmoh held then broke for a 5-6* lead in the 2nd. That's the first break of the match. Let's hope they are like buses and two come along at once.

Well, well... 15-40... And after a ridiculously long rally it's a break!! Yessss. Tie break time. Fanselow to serve first.

0*-3 back to 3-3* ....

Fanselow edges in front still on serve 5-4* 5-5*

Double Fault #2 of the TB brings up Match Point 6*-5... 2nd serve... GSM

Profit: £4.20
Bank: £13.56

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Gastao Elias v Facundo Arguello

Well it didn't take long!!!

All in bet on Elias with the score at 6-3 1-1* got odds of 1.18

Here's hoping he continues his good form.

Gastao Elias - Winner in Campinas
And a break straight away from 30-0. Elias leads 2*-1 in the 2nd set.

4 break points saved when serving at 3*-2 for a 4-2* lead

Another break and hold sees out the match for a 6-3 6-2 win.

Profit: £1.37
Bank: £9.37

A Year in the Wilderness!!!

Hello fellow punters.

It is a year, to the day, since my last post! Perhaps it is coincidence or perhaps it is fate? I have decided to have another crack at this punting lark but am only going to start with £10 and see where we get - probably not very far haha!

As you can probably tell I haven't given gambing much thought over the last year or so and I will probably be completely out of tune with what the latest developments are. On the other hand the break may clear the mind and help me focus.

I'm going to TRY and look for bets before the off and then trade out in play. Mind you I will probably revert to lumping on any available in play bet within a few hours.

With football still waiting for players to return from international duties matches are few and far between. Most of the quality tennis is in China this week but there are a couple of WTA matches in Austria this evening. There are also some challenger tournaments later on tonight so may have a look at them as with only £10 liquidity shouldn't be an issue.

I also like NFL so will probably have a look for a value bet on the Philadephia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers. Expecting a big match here from two in form teams.

So back to the tennis:

WTA Linz, Austria - Magdelena Rybarikova v Carina Witthoeft

Carina Witthoeft

Rybarikova is the favourite here currently around 1.65 on Betfair, however I do have a concern that she retired unwell last week whilst being beaten by Simona Halep in Beijing. She did beat Hogenkamp in the 1st round 7-5 6-3 but whilst in straight sets it was anything but an easy win.

I feel that Witthoeft should be able to take a set here and maybe the match. The choice was what bet to take? I have decided to go for a punt on Witthoeft at 2.54 on match odds with a target to green out at odds of 1.60

Nearly got greened out at 5*-6 0-30 in the first set but only went down to 1.64. Into the Tiebreak we go!

Lost the 1st set tie break 7-4

Finally a break in this match and it comes in the 1st game of the 2nd set. Witthoeft makes the break through for a 0-1* lead

Carina fends off the 1st and 2nd break points on her serve in the match to take a 0*- 2 lead.

Following on from a hold Rybarikova breaks back for 2*-2

Breaks following breaks 2-3* and again from 40-15 to break! 3*-3

Oh well loses 7-6 6-3 still think I had the right bet. Just set my green point a little too high. £ down and now a bank of £8

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