Saturday's Tennis

Well last night was most enjoyable. Copious amounts of alcohol twinned with exuberant dancing equals sore head this morning and a bad knee!! Still I obviously managed to persuade the Mrs to stop for a kebab on the way home as half of it seems to be down the front of my dinner jacket!

I can't believe I said I would play rugby today. I feel like crap have somehow hurt my knee and want to go back to bed please. It also means that I'm going to miss today's tennis.

It's a shame that we have Nadal v Djokovic in the semi final really, but it means it's a great opportunity for Monfils and Stepanek.

In the 1st Semi final I can't see past a Djokovic win. His game is superior to Nadal's on this surface and seems to be in fine form despite his customary wobbles in matches. Nadal was great against Tsonga yesterday but has been very average apart from that. Probably not one to get on early though as the swing will be sudden for a break either way.

In the second Semi I favour Monfils. He can blow hot and cold I know but this close to a Masters Series final should be enough to focus him especially on home soil. Stepanek has had a great run but was completely blown off the court by Murray until he stopped playing. Even if I was around I wouldn't be confident enough to have a bet on this.

In summary then perhaps missing the tennis today is not such a bad thing with two potentially tight matches. I'll just go and run around a rugby field trying not to throw up! I'm getting too old for this nonsense ;-)

Friday's Tennis

We started off today with Djokovic v Soderling, which Djokovic has just won 6-4 1-6 6-3. It wasn't a game I had an opinion on so was not bothered that I had to miss it due to work commitments.

But now I am back home and looking at the remaining three matches makes me glad that I am attending a ball this evening. I have just under 4 hours with which to get ready or have a bet.

Next up is Tsonga v Nadal! Tsonga is the favourite @ 1.72 with Nadal @ 2.36. The odds are slightly out in my opinion but not by a lot. I would still have Tsonga shading it as favourite but more like in the high 1.80's. Tsonga needs to get to the final in order to reach London which will be his motivation here. However his performance against Simon troubled me somewhat. Simon was clearly injured from the start, and while some say that has an impact on Tsonga's play, he should have really dispatched him a lot quicker and easier than he did. Nadal may not be in great form at the moment and he does look thinner and wearier every day I see him, but he will put up a lot more resistance than Simon. He is also still in with a shout of year end Number 1.

I will plump for a Tsonga win here but I think it will be 2-1. Therefore if I do decide to get involved it will probably be to lay the first set winner and green up early. This may change in running of course depending on how things develop.

As for the last two matches of the day, I have to be honest and say I really don't have a clue on either. If pushed I would go for Monfils due to the partisan home support and the fact that Cilic hasn't impressed me. In the other match I would have to go for Del Potro. Yes he had the trainer on against Gonzalez, but one reason makes me fancy him.... The year end rankings. He has a really good chance of taking the number 4 spot from Murray, which may only be one place but has enormous repercussions when it comes to draws in tournaments. Number 4 year end will almost certainly mean seeded 4 for the Australian Open in January. What better way to spend your holiday sat on a beach knowing that you are almost guaranteed a semi final berth in the first Major of the new season.

Andy Murray v Radek Stepanek

Very interesting match up this one. The stats and the odds suggest a comfortable Murray victory as Stepanek has not managed to win a set in their last 3 meetings. However I just have my doubts about Murray at the moment. His body language doesn't look right and he struggled through against Blake last night. An on form Murray would have no problems and 1.27 would be a price to lump on. However, I fancy Stepanek to at least take a set this time and perhaps nick a victory. No bet from the off would be my strategy and see how the game is developing. If Murray goes very low early he has to be a lay and likewise if he gets broken early then he is probably a back. I hope Murray stops this "injury" grimacing he's been doing of late! It's very unsettling for us punters. Overall I think Murray 2-1 is the most likely outcome but we will see how it unfolds.

Good Luck and happy punting!

Right I'm matched with a lay at 1.07 now. Let's hope for Step to get back in this!
Score was 5-0* 1st set when I did that by the way. Murray taken the 1st set 6-1 odds still the same. Stepanek to serve first.
0*-1 Good hold by Stepanek now need 0-30 ish for a nice green book :)
There's the break!! Out at 1.2

£154. 59 on Both 

Correction £147.02 on Both (damn commission)


Stepanek takes the 2nd set 6-3


Stepanek Wins 1-6 6-3 6-4
Profit: £147.02


November is green again!

Radek Stepanek v Marin Cilic

Well I've been working again all day today so no bets. However I just got in as this match was reaching the end. I decided to get in on match point which Stepanek duly took!

 

Stepanek Wins 4-6  6-3 6-3

Profit: £1.22

Jurgen Melzer v Radek Stepanek

Melzer won the 1st set 6-2 and I'm hoping he can keep up that level. 1.40 looks a gift if he can so in we go!!!

Stepanek to serve 1st this set let's start with a break!!
Had to go and answer the phone and come back to 1-1 BP TAKE IT!!!! Saved :(
1*-2 Now hold Melzer!!
2-2* Now for the break?

Wish I'd backed Safin like I was going to!! He's 4-0 up in the first!

15-40 Take one!!! And Break!!

3*-2 Now does he take it from here or to green?? Hmmm
4-2* C'mon another break then?
5*-2 Get in Jurgen I take back all those horrible things I've said about you in the past!! ;)

Melzer Wins 6-2 6-2 
Profit: £234.46