Friday, 13 November 2009

Friday's Tennis


We started off today with Djokovic v Soderling, which Djokovic has just won 6-4 1-6 6-3. It wasn't a game I had an opinion on so was not bothered that I had to miss it due to work commitments.

But now I am back home and looking at the remaining three matches makes me glad that I am attending a ball this evening. I have just under 4 hours with which to get ready or have a bet.

Next up is Tsonga v Nadal! Tsonga is the favourite @ 1.72 with Nadal @ 2.36. The odds are slightly out in my opinion but not by a lot. I would still have Tsonga shading it as favourite but more like in the high 1.80's. Tsonga needs to get to the final in order to reach London which will be his motivation here. However his performance against Simon troubled me somewhat. Simon was clearly injured from the start, and while some say that has an impact on Tsonga's play, he should have really dispatched him a lot quicker and easier than he did. Nadal may not be in great form at the moment and he does look thinner and wearier every day I see him, but he will put up a lot more resistance than Simon. He is also still in with a shout of year end Number 1.

I will plump for a Tsonga win here but I think it will be 2-1. Therefore if I do decide to get involved it will probably be to lay the first set winner and green up early. This may change in running of course depending on how things develop.

As for the last two matches of the day, I have to be honest and say I really don't have a clue on either. If pushed I would go for Monfils due to the partisan home support and the fact that Cilic hasn't impressed me. In the other match I would have to go for Del Potro. Yes he had the trainer on against Gonzalez, but one reason makes me fancy him.... The year end rankings. He has a really good chance of taking the number 4 spot from Murray, which may only be one place but has enormous repercussions when it comes to draws in tournaments. Number 4 year end will almost certainly mean seeded 4 for the Australian Open in January. What better way to spend your holiday sat on a beach knowing that you are almost guaranteed a semi final berth in the first Major of the new season.

Thursday, 12 November 2009

Andy Murray v Radek Stepanek


Very interesting match up this one. The stats and the odds suggest a comfortable Murray victory as Stepanek has not managed to win a set in their last 3 meetings. However I just have my doubts about Murray at the moment. His body language doesn't look right and he struggled through against Blake last night. An on form Murray would have no problems and 1.27 would be a price to lump on. However, I fancy Stepanek to at least take a set this time and perhaps nick a victory. No bet from the off would be my strategy and see how the game is developing. If Murray goes very low early he has to be a lay and likewise if he gets broken early then he is probably a back. I hope Murray stops this "injury" grimacing he's been doing of late! It's very unsettling for us punters. Overall I think Murray 2-1 is the most likely outcome but we will see how it unfolds.

Good Luck and happy punting!

Right I'm matched with a lay at 1.07 now. Let's hope for Step to get back in this!
Score was 5-0* 1st set when I did that by the way. Murray taken the 1st set 6-1 odds still the same. Stepanek to serve first.
0*-1 Good hold by Stepanek now need 0-30 ish for a nice green book :)
There's the break!! Out at 1.2


£154. 59 on Both 

Correction £147.02 on Both (damn commission)


Stepanek takes the 2nd set 6-3


Stepanek Wins 1-6 6-3 6-4
Profit: £147.02


November is green again!


Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Gilles Simon



Simon somehow managed to win against Ljubicic the other day despite not being able to move. I will not speculate on whether I felt the result was pre-determined as many others have dicussed it at great length on the forums.

Had Simon not had a recurring knee injury then I would have given him a chance in this match. However he did have knee problems!

Tsonga is brainless at times but his coaching team will have told him what he needs to do to win this. Tsonga at 1.29 seems very generous all things considered but Simon may have the energy and strength in his knee to start strongly. Hopefully we can get to 4-4 in the 1st then may be the time to get on Tsonga at around 1.45.

Good Luck all and happy punting. :-)

Tsonga Wins 6-2 6-3

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