Draw for London ATP World Tour Finals

The draw for the group stages has been done Click here for link

It was never going to be easy for anyone I guess but this is what it looks like:

Group A: Federer, Murray, Del Potro, Verdasco
Group B: Nadal, Djokovic, Davydenko, Soderling
Alternate Tsonga

I feel that Federer and Murray should go through from Group A. Del Potro struggling with injury and Verdasco not on form. I expect Tsonga to get at least one match from this group. In Group B, I'm going to go against the ranking here as I actually think Davydenko is favourite for this group. Many will note Djokovic's rich vein of form but I don't see it like that I see him playing OK with a very fortunate draw, or his opponents not taking their chances. So I'm going to plump for Davyenko and Soderling.

Saturday's Tennis

Well last night was most enjoyable. Copious amounts of alcohol twinned with exuberant dancing equals sore head this morning and a bad knee!! Still I obviously managed to persuade the Mrs to stop for a kebab on the way home as half of it seems to be down the front of my dinner jacket!

I can't believe I said I would play rugby today. I feel like crap have somehow hurt my knee and want to go back to bed please. It also means that I'm going to miss today's tennis.

It's a shame that we have Nadal v Djokovic in the semi final really, but it means it's a great opportunity for Monfils and Stepanek.

In the 1st Semi final I can't see past a Djokovic win. His game is superior to Nadal's on this surface and seems to be in fine form despite his customary wobbles in matches. Nadal was great against Tsonga yesterday but has been very average apart from that. Probably not one to get on early though as the swing will be sudden for a break either way.

In the second Semi I favour Monfils. He can blow hot and cold I know but this close to a Masters Series final should be enough to focus him especially on home soil. Stepanek has had a great run but was completely blown off the court by Murray until he stopped playing. Even if I was around I wouldn't be confident enough to have a bet on this.

In summary then perhaps missing the tennis today is not such a bad thing with two potentially tight matches. I'll just go and run around a rugby field trying not to throw up! I'm getting too old for this nonsense ;-)

Friday's Tennis

We started off today with Djokovic v Soderling, which Djokovic has just won 6-4 1-6 6-3. It wasn't a game I had an opinion on so was not bothered that I had to miss it due to work commitments.

But now I am back home and looking at the remaining three matches makes me glad that I am attending a ball this evening. I have just under 4 hours with which to get ready or have a bet.

Next up is Tsonga v Nadal! Tsonga is the favourite @ 1.72 with Nadal @ 2.36. The odds are slightly out in my opinion but not by a lot. I would still have Tsonga shading it as favourite but more like in the high 1.80's. Tsonga needs to get to the final in order to reach London which will be his motivation here. However his performance against Simon troubled me somewhat. Simon was clearly injured from the start, and while some say that has an impact on Tsonga's play, he should have really dispatched him a lot quicker and easier than he did. Nadal may not be in great form at the moment and he does look thinner and wearier every day I see him, but he will put up a lot more resistance than Simon. He is also still in with a shout of year end Number 1.

I will plump for a Tsonga win here but I think it will be 2-1. Therefore if I do decide to get involved it will probably be to lay the first set winner and green up early. This may change in running of course depending on how things develop.

As for the last two matches of the day, I have to be honest and say I really don't have a clue on either. If pushed I would go for Monfils due to the partisan home support and the fact that Cilic hasn't impressed me. In the other match I would have to go for Del Potro. Yes he had the trainer on against Gonzalez, but one reason makes me fancy him.... The year end rankings. He has a really good chance of taking the number 4 spot from Murray, which may only be one place but has enormous repercussions when it comes to draws in tournaments. Number 4 year end will almost certainly mean seeded 4 for the Australian Open in January. What better way to spend your holiday sat on a beach knowing that you are almost guaranteed a semi final berth in the first Major of the new season.

Arnaud Clement v Novak Djokovic

This is a match that I fully expect Djokovic to win and the odds reflect the surety of the eventual outcome. However the odds do not reflect the best value that is going to become available in play in my opinion. Djokovic regularly seems to give his opponent a sniff and as such I would recommend waiting till Djokovic's odds hit around 1.23/24 before getting on.

I would however not recommend a lay to start with a view to trade because this also has a good chance of being a 1.01 express if Nole is in the mood.

Looks like the 1.01 express today Djokovic break immediately for a 0-1* lead. And Clement breaks straight back. Had those two games been the other way round, I would have been in clover right now!

There's the 1st set - 6-2. I hope people took my advice not to lay for the trade. Djokovic did have his customary wobble. Unfortunately for me he did it when he was already ahead. We'll see what the second set brings but this should be straight forward from here. Although for a speculative punt backing Clement at 30's is a very cheap one!

Djokovic Wins 6-2 6-2
No profit as didn't get the opportunity to get involved.

Roger Federer v Novak Djokovic

Well I had a lovely Sunday lunch at some friends. Roast pork with all the trimming and lashing and lashings of red wine :-)

Home in time to find Djokovic 2-0* up in the final set against Federer with deuce too. So on I lump at 1.38!!

Fortunately Nole takes the break at the third time of asking. Djokovic consolidates the double break with a hold for 4-0*

4*-1 Good service game from Federer but surely too little too late!
Maybe I spoke too soon!!! 0-40... 15-40... 30-40... Deuce... GP... Holds!!!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, should be that! :-) 5-1*
5*-2 time to serve it out! 0-15... 15-15... 30-15... 30-30... MP#1... GSM

Djokovic wins 6-4 4-6 6-2
Profit: £13.78

Stanislas Wawrinka v Novak Djokovic

Well I don't know what is up with me this week I just can't seem to get going! Thank God I've kept the stakes small!

Anyway in this match I really fancied Djokovic from the off so lumped on at 1.27.

Unfortunately Stan won the first set 6-3. I was, however confident that Novak would win the second set and then probably the match. I was right it seems!!!

The fact that when Stan looked like breaking in the 2nd set I decided to red out seemed to be vindicated when he completed the break. But Novak broke straight back and went on to win the set in a tiebreak. I did think about laying Nole at the start of the third to try and rescue some but glad I didn't as he opened up a 4-0 lead!

Djokovic Wins 3-6 7-6(5) 6-2
Loss: £22.44

Oh well looks like I may finish with my first red week since I started the blog unless I get my finger out. I'm not tempted to deposit more and up the stakes though as my judgement has been so bad this week.